In recent weeks, a remarkable surge in global demand for gold has captivated traders worldwideAs anticipation over potential tariffs loom from the United States government, gold has become a hot commodity, with traders racing against the clock to transport it to AmericaThis frenzy has sparked a striking anomaly in the market: gold being traded at prices lower than those of London’s spot goldParticularly, a notable $5 difference per ounce has been observed, an unusual occurrence in an otherwise consistent pricing environment.
International news reports have shed light on these developments, emphasizing that gold housed within the Bank of England is being sold at a price significantly below the general market ratesThe urgency of traders stems from fears over impending tariffs that pose a substantial risk, prompting them to stockpile gold in anticipation of further price increasesA backlog at the Bank of England’s vault has resulted in waiting times stretching up to weeks, drastically affecting the accessibility of the gold stored there.
According to insiders, traders' bids for the gold held by the Bank of England are now offered at rates over $5 per ounce lower than those found in the London spot marketTypically, such discrepancies are minimal, accruing only a few cents due to consistent central bank trading activitiesHowever, the current scenario reflects a competitive dash among traders attempting to secure gold and transport it hastily to the U.S., significantly inflating premiums while simultaneously diluting the interest in the Bank’s gold due to the arduous extraction process.
While the U.S. has not directly indicated any impending restrictions specifically targeting precious metals, apprehensions that gold might find itself included in a broader category of tariffs have led traders to act swiftlyThe Bank of England has not responded to requests for commentary regarding the ongoing situation, leaving many in the industry speculating about the real impact this could have on future gold demand and trading dynamics.
The Bank itself holds an impressive inventory of over 400,000 gold bars, which amounts to an estimated value of $450 billion based on current pricing
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Much of this gold represents holdings for various central banks worldwide, as well as major gold trading firmsTo put this into perspective, this quantity is only a fraction of the more than 8,000 tonnes of gold stored in London, with the majority retained by exchange-traded funds, other central banks, and investors who are generally reluctant to offload their reserves.
Over the last few months, pricing dynamics have seen shifts even at institutions like the New York Mercantile Exchange, where gold prices have surpassed international benchmarks due to traders liquidating short positions out of fear of tariffs imposed by the U.S. governmentAlthough some of these pricing gaps have since diminished, the availability of gold in the London market remains scarce, primarily as traders who have sold gold futures at inflated prices are struggling to meet their delivery obligations.
Compounding this issue is the rising cost of gold lease rates for one-month periods, which have now surged to around 4.7%. This figure is considerably higher than the usual rates that tend to hover near zero, indicating heightened market tensionThis metric serves as a reflection of the returns that metal holders in London can earn from lending their gold on a short-term basis.
Notably, data collated from various sources indicates that one-month forward gold prices are now trading below spot pricesThis structure, termed the spot premium, is a rare scenario for the gold market and echoes the uncertainty currently enveloping it.
Some central banks reap benefits from rising lease rates by lending out their gold, particularly as the inventory held at the Bank of England often serves as a crucial source of liquidity during market tightnessRobert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader at JPMorgan and now managing director, aptly pointed out the bottleneck situation - attributing the delays primarily to banks wishing to borrow gold from the Bank of England, which is not designed as a commercial bank capable of comprehensively addressing such overwhelming demands.
However, complexities arise as gold bars traded in London (typically 400 ounces) cannot be sent directly to the United States for settlement on the COMEX exchange
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